Time for Correction ??

Fiscal Deficit
Fiscal deficit for the first four months stands at 1,55,000 cr. At this rate the fiscal deficit target should be comfortably burst. A deficient monsoon is likely to add to the woes. Part of the deficit could be covered by disinvestment, but disinvestment is not a solution towards managing deficits. Disinvestment should be part of liberalization policy only, though it would help cover deficits a bit. As anybody would know, selling fixed assets for the purpose of raising working capital is not a sign of a vibrant company, similarly selling assets (PSUs) for the purpose of covering deficits does not indicate a vibrant govt. financial condition. If indeed fiscal deficit breaches the target of about 4 Lakh crore for this fiscal, expect trouble. Rating agencies may downgrade India, govt. may have to raise taxes and of course markets may react negatively.
The graph below shows the rise in fiscal deficit in absolute terms. Economists argue that fiscal deficit should be seen as a ratio of the GDP to see whether it is a cause for alarm or not. As a percentage of GDP fiscal deficit is targeted at 6.8% for the year, which is likely to be breached. But this figure is only for the central govt. If state govt. deficits and off balance sheet items are added we are looking at around 11% of the GDP, which is high. In my view the absolute amount of fiscal deficit is equally important as it shows how much needs to be financed.

The above are some of the issues that seem to me as obvious reasons why markets should not go up from here. We seem overheated. It is time for a correction.