Suzlon More Update

Source : NSE
Suzlon Energy Limited has informed the Exchange regarding a press release dated December 09, 2009, titled "Suzlon wins 31.5 MW order with Rajasthan State Mines and Minerals Ltd.". A copy of the press release shall be available on the NSE website (http://www.nseindia.com) under: Corporates > Latest Announcements and on the Extranet Server (/Common/Corporate Announcements).

Suzlon Update

Source : Money control


Repower has got a big order of 950 MW in canada for the period 2011 to 2015 -this is big news since it shows that financing is coming back - watch out for more such orders from North America after the copenhagen summit in december - I believe the worst is over and Repower acquisition may actually be a smart one in the long run

Danke..

RCF - a good buy for Medium Term

RCF can be a good buy for medium to long term. Currently the share is tradin around 72. Try to buy it around 65 and once it break above 80, then 120 is also possible.


Thanks,
Bhupesh

Accumulate Unitech @ Every Dip

Unitech Posted its results and they are not bad. Looking at the charts of unitech, it is standing very strong support zone of 78-82, which is also 150 DMA. Technically unitech compared to other real estate players looks good and traders or investors can start accumulating Unitech at every dip.

Keep a stoploss of Rs 68-70, then ride it towards Rs 89 and then Rs 96.

Another Triangle formation Observed (Moser Baer)

Moser Baer still remains within a triangle consolidation pattern that has lasted at least since 2009 started, and now we’re seeing an even tighter triangle within the larger triangle. When will it ever end!? Soon, perhaps Let’s take a look at the current Moser Baer Daily Chart.

The boundaries have now contracted so we need to be watching the 95 and Rs. 85 prices for signs of a potential breakout one way or the other.
MACD suggests postive breakout for which intial target can be around 115 and then 140 is also possible.
Remeber , it is one of those stocks which is still trading at discount to Book Value of Rs. 100.

Use the Dip in the Market to Add this stock to your portfolio for a handsome return of 30%.

Enjoy Investing..

Thanks,
Bhupesh

Buy Suzlon Energy

6 oct 09

Suzlon Energy Limited has informed the Exchange that "The signing of a repeat order for 57 MW with Ayen Enerji of Turkey. The order will be supplied with 27 units of Suzlon S88-2.1 MW turbine, to be installed at the Seferihisar and Mordogan projects in east Turkey."

Suzlon receives repeat order from China
July 8, 2009

• Repeat order for 40 units of S.64 1.25 MW turbine

• Consolidate its presence in China wind Energy market
Suzlon enters Bulgarian wind market
Monday, July 20, 2009

· Order to supply 12.6 MW through six Suzlon S88 2.1 MW wind
turbines
· First order with partner Technomash Bulgarian Industrial Group

We have seen such companies turning around very fast and the view getting changed, the classic example has been Wockhardt Pharma where we have seen share prices almost doubling or more than that. The moment you have seen some of the funds getting infuse or rather getting rescheduled, so same thing is expected to happen in case of Suzlon also.

The above orders tells that this Company is doing good and once the debt restructing is complete, the stock can get re rated aand can provide 40-50% of returns.

Adding the Interview of Suzlon's management:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/sales-to-be-skewed-towards-h2-fy10-suzlon-energy_418430-1.html

Channel formation in Astra Micro Wave

Looking at the Weekly charts of Astra Micro Wave a niche player in Defence Sector, It seems there is some kind of channel is forming. Currently it is trading around 88, which according to channel is a very good support and a potential candidate for buy. Also 3/10 PPO is showing postive diverngence. Any good event can trigger this stock to 140 levels. Lets wait and watch.

Happy Investing...
Bhupesh

Chart for Mount Everest Minearal Water ( BSE Only)

Water treatment listed on BSE only Mount Everest Mineral Water (MEMW) became a part of Tata Tea in 2007. The company bottles and sells natural mineral water under the brand name Himalayan, which is the only internationally accepted natural mineral water from India.

Tata Tea bought 14 lakh shares of Mount Everest in two separate transactions, according to the data available on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The total share purchase represents about 4.11 per cent stake, pushing Tata Tea`s total shareholding to 40.11 per cent .

As per chart, the share looks to be in some king of trading range and currently trading at lower end of range, a good level to buy.

enjoy the ride

Drink Water, Earn Money

There is a shocker about water - in times of scarcity, the rich will buy and guard it, the poor will steal it and the middle class will fight and / or die for it !

India’s huge and growing population is putting a severe strain on all of the country’s natural resources. Most water sources are contaminated by sewage and agricultural runoff. India has made progress in the supply of safe water to its people, but gross disparity in coverage exists across the country. Although access to drinking water has improved, the World Bank estimates that 21% of communicable diseases in India are related to unsafe water. In India, diarrhea alone causes more than 1,600 deaths daily—the same as if eight 200-person jumbo-jets crashed to the ground each day. Hygiene practices also continue to be a problem in India
http://water.org/projects/india/

If this crisis gets out of hand, our lifestyles will suffer changes that we are not ready to make yet.
In this scenario of gloom and doom is there a ray of light somewhere ? Yes ! water purification companies that are suddenly likely to witness the next big boom. Companies like ion-exchange-(india),mount-everest-mineral-water, Parle (Bisleri), Pepsi and Coca Cola India will reap bonanzas that will stun investors. If the corporate governance in these companies is high and reporting of profits is fair, these will be the next big investment opportunities. There will be many downstream opportunities in the coming years, ancillary units that supply chemicals to purifying companies, make their plants and supply spares etc.

Water crisis looming in future: How to profit from it.. Think abt it...

Time for Correction ??

Fiscal Deficit
Fiscal deficit for the first four months stands at 1,55,000 cr. At this rate the fiscal deficit target should be comfortably burst. A deficient monsoon is likely to add to the woes. Part of the deficit could be covered by disinvestment, but disinvestment is not a solution towards managing deficits. Disinvestment should be part of liberalization policy only, though it would help cover deficits a bit. As anybody would know, selling fixed assets for the purpose of raising working capital is not a sign of a vibrant company, similarly selling assets (PSUs) for the purpose of covering deficits does not indicate a vibrant govt. financial condition. If indeed fiscal deficit breaches the target of about 4 Lakh crore for this fiscal, expect trouble. Rating agencies may downgrade India, govt. may have to raise taxes and of course markets may react negatively.
The graph below shows the rise in fiscal deficit in absolute terms. Economists argue that fiscal deficit should be seen as a ratio of the GDP to see whether it is a cause for alarm or not. As a percentage of GDP fiscal deficit is targeted at 6.8% for the year, which is likely to be breached. But this figure is only for the central govt. If state govt. deficits and off balance sheet items are added we are looking at around 11% of the GDP, which is high. In my view the absolute amount of fiscal deficit is equally important as it shows how much needs to be financed.

The above are some of the issues that seem to me as obvious reasons why markets should not go up from here. We seem overheated. It is time for a correction.

Rising wedge Formation In NIfty - Be cautious

The rising wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes higher highs and higher lows with a contracting range. When you find this pattern in an uptrend it is considered a reversal pattern as the contraction of the range indicates that the uptrend is loosing steam. When you find this pattern in a downtrend it is considered a bullish pattern as the market range becomes narrower into the correction indicating that it is running out of steam and the resumption of the downtrend is in the making.

At the Same time Negative Divergences are forming on Price oscillators. So a 200 pint correction is expected before Nifty touches 5200.

Be cautious and trade with Care.

Bhupesh

the yellow metal

Please refer to http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/gold-nears-apex-of-triangle-pattern/

Three-push-and-tick-divergences-signal-likely-intraday-top

Click to view larger view..

I wanted to give a quick mid-day update on the current RELiance Infra. Let’s take a look:

There are some quick lesson to learn.

First, let me say this is an afternoon update and there is still over an hour until the close, but for what we’re seeing right now, it would appear odds favor the intraday high has been made… or at least that a significant new high is a lower probability outcome.

As soon as Reliance Infra making the top of 1150 of intrady , we can clearly see the 3/10 PPO is giving negative divergences where you can take short positions.

Graducally , from white line you can see there many negative divergences created and prices move down..

There’s certainly no guarantee price will inflect downward off these levels, but the odds certainly favor a continuation downward move… or at least that reward remains to the downside while reward remains to the downside from a strictly technical (chart) perspective.

Be safe out there and please check back for more updates.

Thanks,

Bhupesh

NagarJuna Construction - Example of a Trading Range

Nagarjuna Construction Seems to be in Some kind of Trading Range with Upward Bias.

Buy Level 120-125 , Resistance around 155-160.

If it crosses 160 and trades above , we can possibly then can see a Good upmove to 200 levels.

Keep an eye on these stocks

- Allied Digital Services Limited
- Gallantt Metal Limited ( If volumes are good )-
Resurgere Mines & Minerals India Limited-
Harrisons Malayalam Ltd
- PBA Infra
- Man Industries (India) Ltd
- Meghmani Organics Limited

Buy Harrisons Malayam CMP 92

Frnds,



Tea we all take, i think so. Ever thought your tea can give you money as well!..



here is your chance to get into the Tea stocks and make a decent money on this...



One of my pick in tea Sector is Harrisons malayam. The stock is current trading @ 92 and structurally , it looks vey positive as 5 day SMA above 10 DMA and 30 DMA above 50 DMA. Very bullish sign .

I suggest buying with a SL of 85-89 and a target of 125-145.

HML is a company that has witnessed many seasons and weathered many storms. Today it is growing from strength to strength, taking advantage of the changing paradigm for agriculture in India. HML is part of The RPG Enterprises, one of the largest business conglomerates in India with business interests ranging from tyres, cables, power transmission, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals ,speciality chemicals to retail and consumer marketing, hotel, tourism and entertainment .


So enjoy your Tea.


Thanks,
Bhupesh

Follow up on TATA MOTORS

Now the next logical target seems to 550-572. Lets Wait & watch..

In my ealrier post i discussed Tata motors may touch 450. Now whats next it is trading 450 now.

Patience is the art of hoping

Patience is the art of hoping....

Traders Choice

Check this out :

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/01/what-makes-expert-three-surprising.html

BUY Syndicate Bank CMP 83

Buy with a SL of 79 for a short term target of 90.

India cement - CMP 135.25

Buy India Cement with a Stop Loss of 119 for a target of 169-179.

For those who are interested in GOLD

Refer to http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/gold-forming-symmetrical-triangle/.

Thanks,
Bhupesh

Buy Unitech above 89 for a short term target of 104-105.

TATA Motors Buy with a Stop loss of 315

Key level to watch 320 , if trades aboves 320, then can go upto 380 and if it crosses 392 , then 450.

Nifty on July 17

The lesson to learn from the daily chart is that price formed a significant Negative Divergence that preceded the recent correction down into the 4,000 area.

We had a bearish head and shoulder in the Nifty which has seen a sharp rally and gets cancelled if it trades above 4500 - right shoulder

4500 is ket level to watch out for!

We are still in Uptrend..

Key level in down side to watch is 4371. If it remain above that one we are still in Uptrend..

Is Bear Market Over??

In my earlier blog of Double Botttom, we analyzed the Nifty trend reversal with Double Bottom formation. Now in this post , i will try to analyze the same chart with Elliot Wave theory, with the Bull Market Truncation. Let's have a look into this..

Elliott used the word "failure" to describe a situation in which the fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. We prefer the less connotative term, "truncation," or "truncated fifth." A truncation can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.

If we see above, after a strong fall, Nifty gets into a trading range and we can see at (7), which is end of wave 5. After wards market is in uptrend. So is the Bear MArket over and are we in a new bull cycle?? Answer to this question lies in the key level of 4649 in NIfty. Lets watch how it unfolds..

Happy Reading..

Rangebound Trade

The massive consolidation is going on in Nifty.

You can almost feel it like steam trying to burst through a lid, or pressure building up that either will shatter this level… or fizzle out and fade away like mist.

This suggests that the range will expand to become larger by either moving up to establish new resistance, or moving down by establishing lower support. We will let the market decide it.

Since we aleady come up a lot, space for moving down is more. Lets wait and watch who wins in Bull v/s Bear fight..

This post mainly serves as a point of interest, demonstrating how a higher timeframe can directly influence the behavior (support and resistance) of a lower timeframe, and why it’s important to know key technical price levels in advance if you trade mainly intraday.

Thanks,
Bhupesh

NIfty -What's Next?

Nifty Crosses 4510. What's Next??

Some people are saying this is bull market and some strong bear market rally, and since the Nifty has raised almost 400 points in last 4 days, what should we do now as trader.

Some folks are talking about cup and handle formation, but for that a small correction for handle is needed, the time frame for which is 4-9 weeks. if you look at the weekly charts of Nifty, look at high price during Sept 08 of 4649. It seems to forming the The Head and Shoulders bottom pattern. Key level again to watch here is 4625-4649. If it break out above 4649 and continue to trade above that one, we may say that we are now in a Bull Market.

Lets see, how the nifty progress during this week.

thanks,

GOLD - Whats now??

Gold is on a steady pathway up to retest and likely exceed the $1,000 per ounce level which has served as substantial resistance in the past.
Let’s take a quick look at gold’s Daily chart structure to see this happening as it unfolds.Price has now moved in a ‘1,2′ wave pattern and now appears to be completing a 3rd wave fractal move up which could push us the $20 we need to hit that magic “$1,000″ level yet again. Even if we find resistance again at the $1,000 level, if the Elliott Wave fractal drawn is correct, then the 5th wave fractal (which could be part of an even larger impulse) would be expected to take us above that level.

"According to GATA (Gold Anti Trust Action Committee), about 15000 tonnes of gold has been loaned by the Central banks to the Bullion banks for which they paid about 1% per annum. The Bullion banks then sold the “loaned” gold on the open market and invested the proceeds at 6-7% per annum. It was a sweet deal until the gold prices started to move upwards.

Happy Reading!!

SUZLON - What should we do now?

Couple of my friends ask me about suzlon. It is one of the trader's favorite share as it is a very high beta stock. Let look at the Stocashtic for the Suzlon. I have taken the parameters as 9,3,3.

It is currently trading around 97 level where its 200 SMA lies. IF it is able to cross that one and able to sustain qbove 100 for couple of days, we can see a rally upto 120-130. but if we get into a correction, then it can go southward to 81-65 level. THE STC chart suggest long term trend intact but a short term correction is due, as shown by arrow divergence above.

Happpy reading!!

The Double Bottom

The double bottom is a major reversal pattern that forms after an extended downtrend. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.

Although there can be variations, the classic double bottom usually marks an intermediate or long-term change in trend. Many potential double bottoms can form along the way down, but until key resistance is broken, a reversal cannot be confirmed. To help clarify, we will look at the key points in the formation and then walk through an example.
Prior Trend: With any reversal pattern, there must be an existing trend to reverse. In the case of the double bottom, a significant downtrend of several months should be in place.
First Trough: The first trough should mark the lowest point of the current trend. As such, the first trough is fairly normal in appearance and the downtrend remains firmly in place.
Peak: After the first trough, an advance takes place that typically ranges from 10 to 20%. Volume on the advance from the first trough is usually inconsequential, but an increase could signal early accumulation. The high of the peak is sometimes rounded or drawn out a bit from the hesitation to go back down. This hesitation indicates that demand is increasing, but still not strong enough for a breakout.
Second Trough: The decline off the reaction high usually occurs with low volume and meets support from the previous low. Support from the previous low should be expected. Even after establishing support, only the possibility of a double bottom exists, it still needs to be confirmed. The time period between troughs can vary from a few weeks to many months, with the norm being 1-3 months. While exact troughs are preferable, there is some room to maneuver and usually a trough within 3% of the previous is considered valid.
Advance from Trough: Volume is more important for the double bottom than the double top. There should clear evidence that volume and buying pressure are accelerating during the advance off of the second trough. An accelerated ascent, perhaps marked with a gap or two, also indicates a potential change in sentiment.
Resistance Break: Even after trading up to resistance, the double top and trend reversal are still not complete. Breaking resistance from the highest point between the troughs completes the double bottom. This too should occur with an increase in volume and/or an accelerated ascent.
Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support and there is sometimes a test of this newfound support level with the first correction. Such a test can offer a second chance to close a short position or initiate a long.
Price Target: The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to estimate a target. This would imply that the bigger the formation is, the larger the potential advance.
It is important to remember that the double bottom is an intermediate to long-term reversal pattern that will not form in a few days. Even though formation in a few weeks is possible, it is preferable to have at least 4 weeks between lows. Bottoms usually take longer than tops to form and patience can often be a virtue. Give the pattern time to develop and look for the proper clues. The advance off of the first trough should be 10-20%. The second trough should form a low within 3% of the previous low and volume on the ensuing advance should increaseJust as with the double top, it is paramount to wait for the resistance breakout. The formation is not complete until the previous reaction high is taken out.

inside-the-reverse - ascending-triangle

The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation But here the pattern is little reverse, so we might a see a correction.

MACD

One of the technical on charts in MACD. Follow the MACD signal and Sure you will profit.